National attention and a crowded Democratic primary have made for a heated 2nd District House race as eight candidates vie for the seat held by Rep. Don Bacon since 2017. There’s a lot on the line for both parties. The race holds the potential to influence political control of the House of Representatives.
The high stakes have brought high spending to Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District.
At the end of 2025, Democrat Denise Powell was in the lead with more than a million dollars and $624,760 in cash on hand. Lone Republican Brinker Harding was next with nearly $877,000 total raised. John Cavanaugh is likely to shrink the gap; he raised $343,608 in the last three months of 2025, and a little over $674,000 in all of 2025.
The 2nd District House race could become one of the most expensive races in the nation, said Randall Adkins. The political analyst and professor at the University of Nebraska at Omaha said he is surprised by the amount of money raised by the Democrats.
“This race could become, at a national level, one that everybody begins to pay attention to. So, you start getting national money coming into the race, in addition to the local money,” Adkins said. “All of a sudden, this becomes one of the most expensive House races in America.”
Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, sometimes called the “blue dot,” has awarded its singular Electoral College vote to Democratic candidates in the past two presidential elections – while also consistently supporting Bacon, a moderate Republican. With Bacon’s retirement, the Cook Political Report rates the district as leaning toward a Democratic flip.
Adkins agrees with that analysis. He said the Democrats have about as good a chance as they’ve ever had to flip the seat for two reasons. First, there’s no incumbent running. Bacon, with his military experience and national name recognition, was hard to beat. The second reason is what Adkins calls “the midterm effect.”
“Since Donald Trump is not running at the top of the ticket, and his approval rating is not really high right now, that’s going to hurt the Republican candidate to some degree,” Adkins said. “Is that going to be enough to be the deciding factor in the race? It’s hard to say.”
Harding has been endorsed by some of Nebraska’s biggest political leaders, including Bacon and Gov. Jim Pillen. The longtime Omaha City Council member is likely to hit the ground running on fundraising as the general election approaches.
Adkins said that money alone won’t win the primary. Nebraska’s top Democratic official, Jane Kleeb, agrees.
“How many town halls are you hosting? What type of cultural events are you participating in? You know, how are you rooted in the really diverse community, not just of Omaha, but of Saunders and Sarpy as well,” said Kleeb, chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party.
Adkins predicts the results of the primary will come down to which candidate was most active among the community.
“This is literally going to be about who can knock on the most doors, who can shake the most hands, and who can raise the most dollars,” Adkins said, “and probably in that order.”